How Tinubu Takes Early Lead Ahead 2027 Polls; State-by-State Prediction

With Nigeria’s opposition parties struggling to build a united front ahead of the 2027 general elections, political observers say President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress may already be gaining a strong upper hand in the race for a second term.

The growing cracks within the opposition camp — especially among key figures in the Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party and African Democratic Congress — have raised concerns that anti-Tinubu votes could once again be split across multiple candidates.

Political analysts believe the inability of opposition leaders to agree on a single presidential candidate may ultimately work in favour of Tinubu, whose camp has continued consolidating power through governors, lawmakers and influential political structures across the country.

Several governors elected on other platforms have either openly aligned with the APC-led Federal Government or are reportedly working closely with the presidency ahead of 2027. This has further strengthened APC’s grassroots machinery nationwide.

States Seen Leaning Towards Tinubu

Analysts say Tinubu may enjoy strong political backing in several states where APC governors or powerful APC structures are already mobilising for his re-election bid.

Some of the states expected to favour Tinubu include:

Lagos
Kano
Kaduna
Kogi
Kwara
Ogun
Ondo
Ekiti
Edo
Imo
Cross River
Borno
Yobe
Niger
Benue

In many of these states, governors are believed to be actively strengthening APC structures while aligning with the presidency through federal appointments, political negotiations and strategic alliances.

Opposition’s Biggest Problem

Beyond internal crises, opposition parties are also battling defections, court cases and leadership tussles that could weaken their chances before the campaign season fully begins.

There are also fears that leading opposition figures may pursue individual ambitions rather than form a united coalition capable of challenging the APC’s nationwide structure.

Analysts argue that unless the opposition agrees on a common candidate and a clear strategy, Tinubu could benefit massively from fragmented votes across the North and South, just as happened in the 2023 presidential election.

APC Banking on Incumbency

The APC is also expected to rely heavily on incumbency power, control of many state governments, and an expansive political network built over the years.

Despite economic hardship and public criticism over inflation, fuel prices and insecurity, Tinubu’s allies insist the president still maintains strong influence among governors, party leaders and federal lawmakers across Nigeria.

For now, the battle for 2027 appears to be less about Tinubu’s popularity and more about whether the opposition can overcome its divisions before it is too late.