2027: 25 States Obi, Kwankwaso Could Defeat Tinubu Revealed 

As political alignments ahead of the 2027 general elections begin to take shape, emerging electoral analyses suggest that a potential alliance between Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could pose a significant challenge to President Bola Tinubu across multiple states.

The projection is largely based on voting patterns and results from the 2023 presidential election, where regional strengths of both politicians showed clear dominance in several parts of the country.

According to data from the 2023 polls, Peter Obi of the Labour Party secured victory in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with overwhelming support in the South-East and strong performances in parts of the South-South and North-Central. ()

Rabiu Kwankwaso, candidate of the NNPP, also demonstrated significant influence in Kano State and parts of the North-West, while maintaining a loyal grassroots base.

States Obi Strongly Won (2023 Base)

Abia

Anambra

Ebonyi

Enugu

Imo

Delta

Edo

Cross River

Plateau

Nasarawa

Federal Capital Territory (Abuja)

Additional Competitive States for Obi

Lagos

Benue

Kaduna

Kwankwaso Stronghold

Kano

Likely Swing / Opposition-Friendly States

Based on combined opposition strength and 2023 voting trends:

Rivers

Akwa Ibom

Bayelsa

Taraba

Adamawa

Kogi

Niger

Kwara

Gombe

Full List of 25 States (Projected Opposition Edge)

Abia

Anambra

Ebonyi

Enugu

Imo

Delta

Edo

Cross River

Plateau

Nasarawa

Lagos

Benue

Kaduna

Kano

Rivers

Akwa Ibom

Bayelsa

Taraba

Adamawa

Kogi

Niger

Kwara

Gombe

FCT (Abuja)

(Potential battleground addition depending on coalition strength)

Political Implications

Analysts note that such a coalition, if successfully formed, could merge Obi’s southern and youth-driven support base with Kwankwaso’s northern grassroots network, creating a broad national spread.

However, President Tinubu’s stronghold in the South-West and significant backing in parts of the North remain key factors that could shape the eventual outcome. In the 2023 election, Tinubu won 12 states, reflecting his entrenched political structure.

Experts caution that while projections offer insight into possible scenarios, actual outcomes will depend on alliances, party structures, campaign strategies, and voter turnout closer to the 2027 elections.

Overall, the road to 2027 is expected to be highly competitive, with coalition politics likely to play a decisive role in determining Nigeria’s next president.