Coalition: Confusion rocks ADC over presidential ticket; moves to block Atiku deepens

It comes as no surprise that news headlines this week have been dominated by the formation of a coalition by opposition politicians plotting to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

The Africa Democratic Congress (ADC) was adopted as a platform to challenge Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC). Leading the ADC coalition is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi, both runners-up in the last presidential election.

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They are joined by other experienced politicians, including former Senate President David Mark, who like Atiku is leaving the PDP, along with the opposition party’s former chairman Uche Secondus, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi.

At the unveiling of the coalition on Wednesday, interim chairman David Mark said it was an attempt to save the country’s democracy and to stop Nigeria from becoming a one-party state.

However, analysts said the coalition is bound to be torn apart by the ambition of some of the key political figures on the question of which part of the country should its presidential candidate come from.

Although there’s a long way to go before candidates are officially announced, political commentators are predicting that 78-year-old Atiku will have another shot at the presidency. Atiku’s supporters feel that with him being the only former vice president seeking the presidency, every other politician naturally comes second.

Aside from Atiku, Amaechi has indicated his interest in running for the country’s top job in 2027. The former minister came a distant second in the APC presidential primary in 2022, losing to Tinubu. In an interview on Channels TV on Thursday, Amaechi said he believes the power-sharing deal between northern and southern Nigeria should be respected.

He recalled how he fought for the return of power to the North in 2015, saying he believes in power sharing between the two major regions of the country. “I led the fight against the PDP government. Why? Because there was an agreement that the government at that time would spend four years. But after four years, the government reneged on it, and I said no, that would be unfair. That will be instability at its peak because the North will react.”

Amaechi added that in line with the power-sharing principle, he would be a one-term president if given the chance to lead the country in 2027. “I won’t do more than four years,” he said, adding that “the South must be allowed to complete its tenure. If the South is not allowed to complete its tenure, then I have made a mistake in supporting it.”

Amaechi’s stance is not very different from that of Obi, who came third in the last presidential election, surprising many pundits to win in 11 of Nigeria’s 36 states and Abuja.

Obi has also declared his intention to contest in the 2027 presidential election under the coalition. Obi said the platform would offer Nigerians “a competent, capable, and compassionate” leadership.

“Our commitment is to sacrifice and work together towards the 2027 general elections, ensuring that Nigeria gets a competent, capable, and compassionate leadership that will prioritise the nation’s future by putting the welfare of Nigerians first,” he said.

The former Anambra governor said he would be willing to serve for a four-year tenure if he reached an agreement with those who support his ambition. “If there is any form of agreement that will restrict me to four years in office, I will comply with the agreement and be ready to leave office by 28th May 2031,” Obi said.

Obi and Amaechi will thus hope that the ADC zones its presidential ticket to the South and that the candidate, if elected, would serve only one term before power returns to the North again. Atiku, who has tried to be Nigeria’s president since 1993, is, however, expected to challenge that belief and seek to be the ADC candidate.

“Ultimately, the success of the coalition would depend on their establishing a level playing ground for intra-party democracy to produce the best candidate,” said Jibrin Ibrahim, a professor of political science. “If they fail to do so, their success cannot be guaranteed.”

Sectional Interests
The politics of region, geography, religion, and ethnicity is one of the major fault lines in Nigerian democracy. This was a major issue in 2010, after the death in office of President Umaru Yar’Adua, also in 2011, and again in both 2015 and 2023.

It would most certainly be the case in 2027, too.

After eight years of the Buhari/Northern Presidency, the Southern partners in the emerging coalition would naturally insist that to replace Mr Tinubu, who would have spent four years in 2027, the remaining four years must naturally go to a presidential candidate of Southern extraction.

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