As the countdown to the 2027 presidential election continues, the political landscape is intensifying, with the possibility of either reelecting or replacing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu looming large.

Former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, is openly pursuing his goal to prevent Tinubu from securing another term.

Recently, he left the All Progressives Congress to join the Social Democratic Party, positioning himself as a challenger to the current president. …Read more.

El-Rufai has been vocal in his criticism of Tinubu’s administration, particularly regarding allegations of selling ministerial positions. It’s worth noting that he was previously denied a ministerial role by the National Assembly, which many Nigerians viewed as an unfair treatment, especially given his support for Tinubu’s 2023 campaign.

His transition to the SDP has sparked discussions in political circles about his credibility and popularity in comparison to Tinubu. Additionally, two former governors from the Southwest, who were rumored to join him in the SDP, have opted to remain with their current party, maintaining a strategic position.

A source within the SDP, who wished to remain anonymous, indicated that the party is unlikely to endorse an Osinbajo/El-Rufai ticket, favoring instead the more seasoned and ambitious Adewole Adebayo, who has been actively leading the party.

“There’s a crisis already, the ticket will not fly, if El-Rufai wants Southerner to run as President against Tinubu in 2027, and that will be Adebayo/El-Rufai not otherwise. It will not happen, I can tell you that. There are rumour of Osinbajo which is not possible. The party will reject Osinbajo outrightly.”

The situation escalated when the former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, announced his decision to switch his political affiliation to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) after departing from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

This move is part of his pursuit of a presidential candidacy for the 2027 election, but the sitting presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party in the 2023 elections Prince Adewole Adebayo is unlikely to accommodate the aspiration of the former APC chieftain to become the 2027 presidential candidate along with Professor Yemi Osinbajo.

Adebayo acknowledged El-Rufai’s intellectual capacity while hinting at potential future disagreements.

Adebayo reiterated his stance against the APC, labeling it a coalition of individuals more interested in power than governance. However, he clarified that this does not mean the party lacks intellectuals, citing El-Rufai as one of the few with whom meaningful discussions can take place.

A reliable insider from Adebayo’s inner circle has revealed that the seasoned attorney is firmly unwilling to relinquish control of the party’s organizational framework to any individual who has recently switched allegiance from the All Progressives Congress (APC).

This stance remains unchanged regardless of the defectors’ prominence or influence within the political landscape. Adebayo’s commitment to maintaining the integrity and leadership of his party reflects his determination to safeguard its principles and direction from external influences, particularly those seeking to capitalize on political transitions.

The source said: “There are issues that need to be ironed out between El-Rufai and Adebayo; he has said it that he will welcome anybody, but he won’t hand over the party structure. And that could be a major issue because these guys coming would want to have the party structure so that they can operate at their own pace, but Adebayo knows the risk and danger in doing that.”

He emphasized that El-Rufai’s entry into the SDP was not a rushed decision but the result of extensive ideological discussions. Despite this, he acknowledged that differences in perspectives remain, stating, “Don’t be surprised if, in two weeks or two months, we disagree on an issue within the SDP.”

Adebayo maintained that while El-Rufai’s experience and expertise are welcome, the SDP remains committed to its core principles, including social intervention and government-led development, which will shape future engagements within the party.

With uncertainty surrounding former Anambra State governor, Peter Gregory Obi’s contesting for President in 2027 on the platform of Labour Party, sources within the party has revealed to ThePapers that there are no vote of confidence in his candidacy.

Several reports have indicated that Peter Obi is in discussions with some top politicians in the country on the possibility of forming a mega party to unseat the current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 Presidential election.

Obi emerged third position in the last presidential election in 2023, alleging that the election was won by his party, accusing the All Progressives Congress (APC) of rigging…. Continue Reading.

He later challenged the election results in court before accepting defeat through court rulings.

According to a source who prefered to speak on the conditions of anonymity said Peter Obi is no longer an important personality in the party, that new candidate will be presented to the party supporters in due time.

“I can tell you authoritatively that Peter Obi will not have Labour Party ticket for 2027 Presidential election, maybe he can get for Senatorial seat but not for president. When the time comes, everyone will see it. He’s been playing double standard and we are aware of it long time ago,” the source said on Saturday morning.

“We made him popular in 2023, we mobilised huge supports for him and today we can all see a movement of ‘Obidient’ everywhere within and outside the country. But I can tell you that the supporters may split, infact, there are supporters already losing confidence in his candidacy. Already, some of the executives have splited, and you can see lots of lawmakers already dumping the party. That will tell you that there are no more confidence and that’s one of the reasons the party will pick another person and support he or she when the time comes.”

Meanwhile, about 10,000 Labour Party supporters have dumped the party for African Democratic Congress in Kaduna.

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Former Nigerian President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan made an iconic quote that has since gone into the political lexicon of the country’s history: “My political ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian”. It presupposes that Jonathan would rather not pursue his ambition if such would lead to any violence.

In the heat of the Boko Haram terror attacks, Jonathan also came up with yet another assertion that he had not used one tenth of his power. This forced many to ask, why crave for political position if you can’t exert the power thereof? Jonathan did not last in the office as President. He was booted out. He is an Ijaw man of Niger Delta extraction.

Rivers state, Siminalayi Fubara does not need to speak out that he does not need to use one tenth of his constitutional power as governor. The world has seen it all. And it is counted for him as weakness, hence the escalation of crisis in the state.

Years before his death, former petroleum minister, Professor Tam David West had once described Jonathan as “the weakest President” Nigeria ever produced. But Rivers people have since come to acquiesce themselves with the fact that the leadership of government in Rivers state is taking shade under the tree of weakness while professing the path of peace. And the peace is pyrrhic.

Pundits have averred that since October 29, 2023 when the crisis began in the state with the threat of impeachment, Governor Fubara failed to exert his power and nib it in the bud once and for all. While he keeps hoping that there would be a political solution some day, the opposition was swinging from post to post looking for where to nail him . They appear to be succeeding from recent developments especially with the recent Supreme Court ‘5-0’ judgment.

Lack Of Consultation

Sources within government circle in the state had informed that the governor would rather choose to carry the gauntlet alone without any botheration. The source noted that the man in the Bricks House does not care about some of the elders who stick out their necks to fight for his political survival. “Even a governor of a nearby state would call him, the man would not answer. He does not relate well with the leadership of the ethnic nationalities in the region who are solidly behind him in this fight”.

Governor Fubara knows that there is a bigger masquerade behind the Minister of the federal capital territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, stoking the fire of crisis in the state. He knows the masquerade would not listen to him for obvious reasons. But there are distinguished Nigerians like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, General Ibrahim Babangida, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto among others. But “Oga will not want to consult anybody”, he said.

He went on to reveal that “even when Papa Edwin Clarke was alive, am not sure Oga visited him one day despite the late man’s stout defence of his government”. The Governor chooses to surround himself with political feather weights who cannot rise up when occasion calls. They are supporters of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar. In 2023 these men were chased out of Rivers state to Abuja by Wike. When the table turned, Wike moved to Abuja as a minister while they returned to Port Harcourt to pitch tent with Fubara. Nothing to offer.

Miserly
Governor Fubara is known to be “a nice man”. Another source put it this way: “Fubara is generous. However, this generosity does not seem to reflect or show in the politics of the state. The governor has reportedly said that the revenue of the state is to develop Rivers for the betterment of the people. This is good. We support him for that. But he is fighting a survival battle and he needs to fight. Until lately, he was not doing that. The Supreme Court judgment appears to have woken him up. But how far can he go? He has lost huge grounds.’

A member of the Elders Council in Rivers state had rebuked the governor for being “too stingy with money”. According to him, “last Christmas, not even a grain of rice from this government despite our support for him. Whatever we are doing, we are not doing it because of Fubara but for Rivers state. We like peace and not war”.

Peace Moves
A prominent retired Army officer from the north was said to have sent emissaries to the Governor to broker peace in the state. He turned it down. Though the man’s move was predicated on his interest in the oil well in Rivers, many northerners would definitely love to side with Fubara in the ongoing political quagmire just to spite Wike who is seen as Tinubu’s strongest man in the south-south region.

“Yes, the general sent some persons to come to Port Harcourt to meet with the Governor. They could not. Maybe the governor was not willing to receive them. The effort is still on. We believe that he will see the reason to meet with the team and douse tension in the state”, the source said. “The governor appears to have made the fight an Ijaw affair. This is not an Ijaw fight. It is a fight for Rivers people and all lovers of peace and uprightness. This explains why the Governor has to come out firm and establish his authority to prove to all that he is fully in charge of governance in the state”, he said.

Nevertheless, Comrade Franklin Ntekim believes that Governor Fubara’s mien disposition should not be taken for docility. “I believe that it is his own strategy. If you look at it clearly, the governor had been winning the war until the Supreme Court came out with that controversial judgment. He is not weak but a very calculative person”.

Countering Franklin’s position, a social commentator, Comrade Gregory Akpan fumed that if it was not a sign of weakness or fear “how come the Governor had five consolidated cases in the Supreme Court and he could put up any fight and he lost them all. The courts are operated by human beings. Did his men fight to present quality and sound arguments and make noise against possible injustice that is common in our system?”

Double Ultimatum
Arising from the Supreme Court judgment which reinstated them as the “valid” members of the House of Assembly, Martins Amaewhule and the 26 other lawmakers on Monday ordered the Governor to present the 2025 budget before the House within 48 hours.

That ultimatum expired on Wednesday midnight only for another ultimatum to sack all Commissioners and political appointees who were not screened and confirmed by Amaewhule within another 48 hours. The House ordered the Governor to forward another list of nominees to the Assembly for proper screening to fill all vacant positions in the state executive council.

Governor Fubara had since denied ever seeing any letter asking him to present the budget. In a letter by the secretary to the state government, SSG, Dr Tammy Danagogo, the Governor said such letter was never brought to his office, hence, he could not respond to anything in social media space.

The two quick ultimatums issued out by Amaewhule are an indication that the House was in a hurry to get the Governor impeached. The battle line is now drawn. Interesting events are expected to unfold as the days go by.

Support Base
Governor Fubara has been enjoying a robust support since the political fight between him and Wike broke out in 2023. The show of solidarity has never been because of the moves by the governor but largely because of their interest in the state. Such groups as the pan Niger Delta Elders Forum, PANDEF, Ijaw national Congress, INC, Ijaw Youth Council, IYC and many more are solidly behind the Governor. President of INC, Professor Benjamin Okaba in his recent press statement warned on dire consequences if Fubara is impeached by the pro-Wike lawmakers.

The leadership of IYC from the eastern zone said “the purported 48-hour ultimatum issued to the Governor, Sir Siminialayi Fubara, by the defected Martins Amawhule-led House of Assembly to present the 2025 budget is a clear indication of an orchestrated effort to create chaos and potentially impeach the governor. This is not only an attack on our leadership but also an affront to the will of the Rivers people who have entrusted their governance to one of our own.

“The IYC firmly warns that we will not stand by and allow detractors to steal this mandate. We are committed to defending our rights and ensuring that the voices of the Ijaw people are heard and respected”.

INC on its part recalled that “In 2003, when Marshall Harry backed Sergeant Awuse’s governorship ambition, it was not Awuse but Harry himself who was assassinated, marking a painful loss for the Ijaw people. By 2007, Ijaw leaders such as Soboma George and Farrah Dagogo played a decisive role in securing victory for Sir Celestine Omehia, while Prince Igodo, a Kalabari-Ijaw warlord, was killed during Omehia’s swearing-in to prevent security breaches”.

He went on to recall that “in 2011, when Rotimi Amaechi sought to nominate Pastor Tonye Cole as a minister, Dame Patience Jonathan, the wife of then-President Goodluck Jonathan, ensured that Nyesom Wike took the slot instead”. The INC lamented that despite these consistent sacrifices by the Ijaw people, an Ikwerre political elite now seeks to frustrate the first riverine governor in decades.

The body stated that the Ijaw people will defend Governor Fubara “with every pint of blood in their veins”, emphasizing that they would not stand by and allow their long-awaited tenure to be truncated.

Prof. Okaba also cautioned that while the INC has worked tirelessly to preserve peace in the Niger Delta, leading to increased oil production and revenue for the nation, regrettably, the same resources are now being used to marginalize the Ijaw people.

Issuing a direct warning to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the INC insisted that the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State must not be treated as ordinary politicking. Prof. Okaba stressed that the Ijaw people, numbering over 40 million worldwide, would not tolerate any attempt to undermine their place in the Nigerian politics.

He further stated that while it enjoins Governor Fubara to, in the spirit of sportsmanship, work with all duly constituted arms of government in the State, “if Governor Fubara’s tenure is truncated by the Amaewhule-led Assembly or anybody else, the INC cannot guarantee the sustenance of the current peace in the Niger Delta, nor the continued rise in oil production.

Division Among Ijaws
Meanwhile, there appears to be a sharp division among the Ijaws following a recent call by the Rivers rescue Movement, RRM, rebuking the utterances of the IYC and INC leadership over the crisis in the state.

This is as the leadership of the group after an extensive deliberations with Ijaw leaders expressed sadness over the recent statements credited to the President of INC, Prof Benjamin Okaba, Chief Sara Igbe, Alhaji Asari Dokubo and some leaders of IYC. Speaking to a cross section of journalist the secretary of RRM said for them as a group those statements were not only reckless, thoughtless and provocative but also a grave threat to national security and peaceful coexistence.

“As a group that stand for peace, justice and a united Nigeria, we believe no individual or organization has the monopoly of violence, so we are calling on the Nigerian Security agencies to arrest these individuals or any other person or group that will threaten the Nigerian State, it’s economy or people.

“RRM is wondering if the purveyors of these message of destruction or economic sabotage are more Ijaws than the 9 grateful Rivers State House of Assembly members from the IJAW extraction that have been maltreated, humiliated and denied all their allowances by the Gov Fubara administration for over a year when no court had declared their seats vacant?

“RRM want to make it clear that we run a constitutional democracy guided by laws and the highest court of the land (The Supreme Court) has spoken and Gov Fubara is bound to obey the ruling. Furthermore, the public is hereby advised to disregard their empty, watery and old fashioned threat because the laws of Nigeria is always supreme”, the group said in a statement.

Vanguard

As the political landscape of Nigeria in 2027 emerges, sources within the camp of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have confirmed discussions regarding the establishment of a new political party.

Speculation surrounding Atiku’s potential defection has intensified, particularly in light of his burgeoning political alliance with former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai.

It has been suggested that both political figures and their associates are considering new strategies due to the prevailing challenges within their respective parties. …Continued Reading.

El-Rufai has publicly voiced his discontent with the current administration led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and has indicated that he may depart from the All Progressives Congress (APC) should the party deviate significantly from its foundational principles. Nonetheless, he has explicitly stated that he would not align with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

A source within Atiku’s camp has disclosed that the 2023 PDP presidential candidate intends to spearhead the formation of a new political party alongside other prominent politicians from various regions of Nigeria.

Key individuals mentioned include Malla Nasir El-Rufai, Kayode Fayemi, Peter Obi, Rauf Aregbesola, Maj. Hamza Al-Mustapha, a former presidential candidate and ex-Chief Security Officer to the late General Sani Abacha, as well as Atiku’s former spokesman, Otunba Segun Showunmi, among others.

While the name of the proposed party has yet to be revealed, discussions are ongoing, and consultations are being made with additional political figures. It can be confirmed that Atiku’s initiative is aimed at realizing his long-standing ambition to attain the presidency of Nigeria by the year 2027.

This development has stirred conjecture that the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may serve as a new political platform for Atiku and El-Rufai, particularly as the PDP currently grapples with internal leadership conflicts.

Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar has publicly refuted claims suggesting that he intends to depart from the PDP.