2027: 10 Northern States APC, Tinubu May Lose as Opposition Gains Ground

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could face a tougher battle in the North in the 2027 presidential election, with political realignments, economic concerns and growing opposition mobilisation threatening the party’s grip on several states.

Although the APC remains a formidable political force, developments ahead of the 2027 election suggest that some northern states that supported Tinubu or other opposition candidates in 2023 could become decisive battlegrounds.

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won 12 states nationally, including Borno, Zamfara, Jigawa and Niger, while Atiku Abubakar won several northern states and Rabiu Kwankwaso carried Kano.

With the opposition now attempting to consolidate its forces, the following 10 northern states could pose the biggest threat to Tinubu and the APC in 2027:

1. Kano State

Kano remains arguably the biggest northern battleground.

Kwankwaso’s political structure continues to give the opposition significant grassroots strength in the state. In 2023, Kwankwaso won Kano, while Tinubu finished behind him.

With Kwankwaso now running alongside Peter Obi under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the political equation in Kano could become even more complicated for the APC.

2. Kaduna State

Kaduna is another state where the APC cannot afford complacency.

Atiku won Kaduna in 2023, demonstrating the PDP’s strong base in the state. The emergence of new opposition alliances could further fragment the APC’s traditional support.

The state is therefore expected to attract intense campaigning from all major presidential contenders.

3. Katsina State

Katsina, the home state of former President Muhammadu Buhari, has traditionally been regarded as an important APC stronghold.

However, Atiku won the state in 2023. The result showed that the APC’s dominance in the state was not guaranteed at presidential level.

Any significant opposition consolidation could again put the state in play.

4. Sokoto State

Sokoto is another northern state where the APC faces a serious challenge.

Atiku won Sokoto in 2023, and the state’s political structure remains highly competitive.

The 2027 contest could therefore turn into a three-way battle unless the opposition succeeds in consolidating around a single candidate.

5. Kebbi State

Kebbi also backed Atiku in 2023.

The state could become particularly important if the opposition manages to combine its northern political structures with the support of influential local political actors.

For Tinubu, retaining the state’s northern bloc will be important to his overall electoral mathematics.

6. Bauchi State

Bauchi is one of the North-East states that could prove difficult for the APC.

Atiku carried the state in 2023, while recent political realignments have continued to reshape the opposition landscape. Reports have also highlighted political manoeuvring involving Governor Bala Mohammed ahead of 2027.

7. Gombe State

Gombe is another state where Atiku prevailed in 2023.

The APC will be hoping that incumbency and its expanding political structure can reverse that result, but an opposition candidate with strong northern appeal could make Gombe highly competitive.

8. Adamawa State

Adamawa remains an important opposition stronghold and was won by Atiku in 2023.

The state’s significance goes beyond its numerical votes: it has historically been associated with strong opposition political networks.

A united opposition could therefore make it extremely difficult for the APC to flip the state.

9. Taraba State

Taraba also went to Atiku in 2023.

With the opposition seeking to build a broader coalition capable of challenging the APC nationally, Taraba could remain one of the states where Tinubu faces an uphill task.

10. Yobe State

Yobe may be one of the more surprising names on the list.

Despite the APC’s strong presence in the North-East, Atiku won Yobe in 2023.

The state could therefore become another major test of whether the APC can retain its northern momentum in 2027.

Why 2027 Could Be Different

The biggest factor that could change the northern political equation is opposition consolidation.

In 2023, Tinubu won the presidency while the opposition vote was divided among Atiku, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso. Tinubu polled 8.79 million votes nationally, compared with 6.98 million for Atiku, 6.10 million for Obi and about 1.50 million for Kwankwaso.

The political landscape is now different.

Opposition figures have explored various arrangements to avoid another division of votes. The NDC currently has Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso as its presidential and vice-presidential candidates, while Atiku is leading the ADC ticket.

That means the opposition’s success will depend heavily on whether it can prevent vote splitting and mobilise voters across regional lines.

At the same time, Tinubu retains significant advantages, including incumbency, the APC’s national structure and control of numerous state governments. Analysts have therefore described the 2027 contest as increasingly competitive rather than a predetermined opposition victory.

Bottom Line

Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba and Yobe could emerge as the 10 northern states where Tinubu and the APC face their biggest electoral challenges in 2027.

This is a political projection, not a prediction of confirmed election results. The final outcome will depend on candidate strength, alliances, economic conditions, voter turnout and the ability of the opposition to consolidate its votes.

With the 2027 presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, the battle for the North could ultimately determine whether Tinubu secures a second term or faces a major political upset.