2027: 15 States Atiku is Targeting to Emerge President (FULL LIST)

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is expected to focus heavily on 15 strategically important states as he intensifies efforts to secure the presidency in the 2027 general election.

Atiku, who has remained one of the leading opposition figures in Nigeria, would need a broad national coalition and strong performance across the North, Middle Belt and parts of the South to defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu or any other major contender in the 2027 presidential race.

The states are considered important because of their voting strength, Atiku’s previous electoral performance, opposition presence and their potential role in determining whether a presidential candidate can satisfy Nigeria’s constitutional requirements for victory.

The 15 states

Adamawa: Atiku’s home state remains a critical pillar of his political strategy. The former vice president would be expected to seek a commanding victory in the state.

Kano: With one of the largest voting populations in Nigeria, Kano is potentially crucial to any opposition presidential campaign. A strong performance there could significantly boost Atiku’s national vote tally.

Kaduna: The politically competitive North-West state is another important target. Atiku would need to make substantial gains there to strengthen his northern numbers.

Katsina: As one of the country’s most populous states, Katsina could play a major role in the 2027 contest. Atiku’s campaign is expected to seek wider acceptance in the state.

Sokoto: The state remains strategically important in the North-West and could become a major battleground between the ruling party and the opposition.

Kebbi: Atiku could also target Kebbi as part of a broader effort to expand his support across the North-West.

Bauchi: Having secured significant support in Bauchi in the 2023 presidential election, the state could remain central to Atiku’s northern strategy.

Gombe: The North-East state is another potential target as Atiku seeks to consolidate support in his geopolitical zone.

Taraba: With its historical opposition strength, Taraba could provide Atiku with another important bloc of votes.

Jigawa: The large electorate makes Jigawa strategically valuable, particularly if the opposition succeeds in mobilising voters across the North.

Plateau: The Middle Belt state could be important to Atiku’s attempt to build a coalition that extends beyond the core northern states.

Benue: Atiku would need strong support in Benue and other Middle Belt states to broaden his geographical spread and strengthen his chances of meeting the constitutional requirement for victory.

Rivers: The oil-rich South-South state has one of the country’s largest electorates and could become a critical battleground in the presidential election.

Bayelsa: Atiku’s previous performance in Bayelsa makes the state another potential target for the opposition in 2027.

Oyo: In the South-West, Oyo could be particularly important to Atiku’s strategy as he seeks to make inroads into a region where the APC remains a formidable political force.

Atiku’s bigger challenge

However, winning these states on paper will not automatically guarantee Atiku the presidency.

Under Nigeria’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must secure the highest number of votes and also obtain at least one-quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of the states and the Federal Capital Territory.

This means Atiku would have to combine his traditional northern support with significant votes from the South and Middle Belt.

His challenge will also involve building a sufficiently broad opposition coalition capable of preventing the fragmentation of anti-APC votes.

With the 2027 election approaching, the battle is increasingly expected to centre on voter mobilisation, coalition-building, candidate popularity and control of key battleground states.

For Atiku, the 15 states could therefore form part of a wider electoral map aimed at creating a path to Aso Rock — but turning the calculation into actual votes will be the decisive test.