15 States APC May Lose in 2027 Despite Controlling 31 Governors

As the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) heads into the 2027 general elections with a numerical advantage in governorships — boosted by a wave of defections from the opposition — political analysts are already warning that control of the states is far from guaranteed.

Internal party tensions, economic dissatisfaction, regional opposition strength, and vibrant local movements could make several APC-held states competitive or even tilt them to the opposition.

Here are 15 states APC could lose in 2027, along with the key risks they face:

1. Lagos State

• Despite being APC’s power base, analysts note that President Tinubu actually trailed opposition candidates in presidential votes in Lagos in 2023, highlighting voter dissatisfaction and making the state contestable.

2. Oyo State

• Governed by APC until recent years, Oyo has strong opposition politics under Governor Seyi Makinde, whose party (PDP) remains highly competitive.

3. Osun State

• Internal APC conflicts over local council control and governance paralysis could weaken support ahead of 2027.

4. Edo State

• APC may struggle here due to dynamic opposition challenges; past governorship elections show competitive margins.

5. Rivers State

• Despite the APC absorbing Governor Siminalayi Fubara, ongoing factional tensions and historic PDP/LP strength could make the state volatile.

6. Akwa Ibom State

• A recent APC governor arrived through defection, but the state’s strong opposition roots make it a likely battleground.

7. Bayelsa State

• Another defection state, but historically dominated by opposition politics, making APC control tenuous.

8. Delta State

• Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection to APC has created friction and could energize opposition coalitions here.

9. Enugu State

• Peter Mbah’s defection to APC was significant, but opposition parties like Labour Party still have deep roots in the Southeast.

10. Plateau State

• With Caleb Mutfwang’s defection and internal party contests, APC may face strong challenges from former opposition networks.

11. Taraba State

• Although with an APC governor through defection, Taraba’s electorate has shown swing behavior in recent cycles, making the state competitive.

12. Sokoto State

• Historically competitive with opposition parties, APC may struggle if national dissatisfaction rises. (General election trends)

13. Adamawa State

• Opposition presence remains strong; APC candidates have underperformed in federal polls here, suggesting vulnerability. (General election trends)

14. Bauchi State

• APC is optimistic here, but concerns about party cohesion and local dynamics could open the door to challengers.

15. Zamfara State

Internal APC disputes and past defection rumors make this northern state uncertain despite current APC control.