2027: Why Tinubu May Not Win in These Five States (FULL LIST)

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s grip on national power may look firm from Abuja, but on the ground, the story is far more complicated.

In several key states, old loyalties are fraying, new alliances are forming, and voter anger is simmering beneath the surface.

Despite the advantages of incumbency, Tinubu could face serious resistance in these five states if current political undercurrents persist.

1. Lagos: The Home Base That No Longer Feels Like Home
Lagos has always been Tinubu’s political fortress, but the cracks are no longer subtle. Rising living costs, urban frustration, and the backlash from the last election cycle have changed the mood.

Many voters now question whether loyalty should be automatic simply because of history. For the first time in decades, Lagos is no longer a guaranteed win — it’s a battleground.

2. Rivers: Where Anti-Establishment Politics Thrive
Rivers State has never been friendly territory for Tinubu’s political machinery, and that hostility hasn’t softened. Deep-rooted opposition structures, coupled with strong local political godfathers, continue to block any meaningful penetration.

Here, federal power doesn’t easily translate into votes — and Rivers voters have a long tradition of resisting it.

3. Kaduna: Northern Patience Is Wearing Thin
Kaduna once symbolized disciplined northern support for the APC, but economic hardship has changed the conversation. Inflation, insecurity, and unemployment have eroded goodwill, even among loyal party supporters.

If voter turnout drops or protest votes rise, Kaduna could become one of the most surprising losses.

4. Anambra: Where Tinubu Is Still an Outsider
In Anambra, Tinubu remains politically distant. The state’s preference for local political brands, combined with a strong sense of regional identity, has consistently limited his appeal.

Without a compelling local narrative or trusted political bridge, winning Anambra remains an uphill battle.

5. Oyo: The Swing State That Loves to Shock Power
Oyo voters have a history of defying expectations and rejecting federal dominance. Political loyalty here is fluid, driven more by performance and personality than party lines.

If dissatisfaction with the center grows, Oyo could easily tilt away — and do so loudly.

The Bigger Picture
Winning Nigeria is no longer just about party structures or political legacies. It’s about economic reality, voter emotion, and credibility. Tinubu’s biggest challenge may not be the opposition — but the growing distance between power and the people.

And in these five states, that distance is becoming dangerously wide.