President Bola Tinubu’s assumption of office on May 29, 2023, came at a critical juncture in Nigeria’s history, characterised by many challenges.

His declaration, “Subsidy is gone,” has sparked significant backlash against his administration, particularly as his tough policies have led to increased hardship for many Nigerians.

Former Nigerian military leader Ibrahim Gbadamosi Babangida has provided a comprehensive analysis of President Bola Tinubu‘s administration. …CONTINUE READING.

Fresh prophecy reveals who wins 2027 election as Tinubu warned

Babangida, a man of immense power and wealth, Babangida ruled the country as military Head of State from 1985 to 1993, leaving behind a legacy of economic reforms, political controversies, and an empire of investments that continues to fuel speculation decades later.

His administration was marked by sweeping economic policies, including introducing the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), which aimed to stabilize the economy through privatization, foreign investment, and currency devaluation.

According to BusinessDay report, IBB has urged Nigerians to exercise patience and resilience during this challenging period, emphasizing that the difficult decisions being made by Tinubu are necessary for the long-term economic advancement of the nation. Babangida believes that these measures, while tough in the short term, are crucial for positioning Nigeria competitively on the global economic stage.

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His insights reflect a hope that with perseverance, the country will ultimately reap the benefits of these strategic reforms.
The Nigerian people will reward that kind of strength, Babangida announced.

He acknowledged the challenges that Nigerians are experiencing as a result of the financial reforms currently being implemented, but he insisted that Tinubu’s policies would be validated by the long-term benefits. Pain does not last forever.

He said, “I have witnessed governments in the past making difficult decisions, and I am confident that Nigerians will see the results if patience is managed effectively.”
He emphasized that Tinubu’s ability to navigate complex political challenges has positioned him favorably for continued leadership, highlighting the significance of his past achievements and adaptability in the ever-changing political arena.

It is said that Tinubu is an expert in political survival. Despite the fact that he has been subjected to pressure, criticism, and enormous challenges, he continues to move forward.

Fresh prophecy reveals who wins 2027 election as Tinubu warned

According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), TheCable Index analysis showed that the foreign reserves declined by 6.23 percent from $40.88 billion reported on January 2 to $38.33 billion on March 27.

Analysis further showed that the decline is the highest in the first quarter of the last five years.

In Q1 2024, the foreign reserves declined by $810.66 million (2.45 percent); in Q1 2023, it dropped by $1.57 billion (4.24 percent); during the same quarter the next year, the external reserves depreciated by $971.35 million (2.39 percent); and in Q1 2022, the foreign reserves dwndled by $827.34 million (2.32 percent).

NIGERIA’S FOREIGN INVESTMENT DROPPED BY 30% WITHIN REVIEWED PERIOD

The decline in the foreign reserves coincides with a drop in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) during the first quarter.According to data obtained from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), TheCable Index analysis showed that the FPI declined by 30.3 percent between January to February.

The NGX has not released March data.

In January, NGX reported that Nigeria recorded $17.35 million in foreign direct investments through equities; however, in February, the foreign inflow dropped to $12.09 million.

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During the same period, foreign outflows outstripped foreign inflows each month, with $31.01 million recorded in January and $16.48 million reported the next month.

The data on foreign direct investments (FDI) for the period is yet to be released.

‘LOW PETRODOLLAR, CBN INTERVENTION CONTRIBUTED TO EXTERNAL RESERVES DECLINE’

The decline in foreign reserves in Q1 2025, according to Charles Abuede, the research lead at Cowry Asset Management Limited, indicates a lack of foreign exchange (FX) inflows into the economy.

Abuede said “minimal petrodollar earnings” and the CBN’s intervention in the FX market to support the naira through the sale of $25,000 weekly to bureau de change (BDC) operators are possible contributors to the decline.

“The depletion of Nigeria’s foreign reserves in the first quarter of 2025 clearly indicates a lack of foreign exchange (FX) inflows into the economy,” he said.

“This is largely due to minimal petrodollar earnings, as crude oil prices remain uncertain, fluctuating between $65 and $70 per barrel.

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“It may also reflect the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ongoing efforts to defend the Naira, alongside the $25,000 weekly FX sales to Bureau de Change (BDC) operators to maintain liquidity in the market.”

Also, Muda Yusuf, the chief executive officer (CEO), the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), echoed Abuede’s stance, saying that regular interventions by the CBN must have been depleting the reserves gradually.

“Because if we are having that, and we are not having sufficient inflows to balance out those outflows, that could be a possibility. You know, the CBN has been very consistent in defending the currency, which is not a bad idea. What is important is to ensure that we are doing so within a sustainable framework so that it doesn’t create an unnecessary crisis for us,” the economist said.

“Secondly, is the fact that the very depletion of reserves is also possibly triggering some speculative pressure, you know, on the market. In other words, if people begin to look at the trend and they notice that the reserves have been declining, it’s possible that that could also be increasing the pressure of demand, you know, on the foreign exchange market.

“And if demand is increasing, that means the amount that is made available to ensure stability will also be increasing. So, that speculative component is also a possibility. So, mind you, I’m talking about possibilities because I don’t have all the facts. So, that is also a possible factor.

“The third possible factor is the fact that NNPC seems to have stepped up or given a window for increased importation of petroleum products. Now, when we had only Dangote (refinery), substantially, you know, supplying the PMS, I think that there was a reduction in the pressure. Because when you look at our import bill, the importation of petroleum products historically has been about between 30 to 40 percent.

“In other words, the pressure of importation of petroleum products has been accounting for almost 30 to 40 percent of our import bill. So, when you have a situation where the dependence on domestic petroleum refinery is declining because NNPC and some of these agencies in the petroleum downstream or regulators seems to be supporting the continuous importation of petroleum products, that is also a factor. Because the importation of fuel is a significant factor in the pressure on our reserves.”

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Yusuf also linked the decline to the drop in FPI, which he said could be worsened by the increase in import tariff in the United States and the possibility of a hike in US interest rate in response to an impending increase in the inflation rate.

“Then, portfolio flows (is another reason). You know, right now, we are beginning to see some geopolitical factors. Now, we are beginning to see a trend of rising inflation in the United States. And the inflation is likely to continue to trend upwards, and it is likely that the Federal Reserve may very soon begin to also tighten monetary policy,” he said.

“Which means that interest rates in the United States may begin to go up any time from now. If Trump continues with his tariff imposition trajectory. That means if interest rates eventually begin to go up in the United States, that may affect portfolio flows.

“Because the returns on investment in those other countries and in other advanced countries may now begin to improve. So, it is also possible that it may have also decelerated the portfolio flows to the economy. So, for me, those are the variables that one can see that may be responsible.

“Then, of course, because I don’t have the data, you know, we have external debt obligations that we need to service. So, if you look at this quarter, some of them had fal due, which also needed to be serviced. So, that is also a possible factor.”

‘FOREIGN RESERVES DECLINE WILL PUT PRESSURE ON NAIRA’

During the reviewed period, the exchange rate in the official window of the FX market was N1,534 per dollar on January 3, compared to N1,539/$ on March 26.

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In the parallel market, the value of the local currency appreciated from N1,650/$ to N1,560 per dollar — indicating a 5.45% percent appreciation.

However, Abuede said the decline in the foreign reserves could put pressure on the naira, threatening the gains in Q1.

“This decline will exert further pressure on the local currency, as the apex bank continues its intervention. The key issue is that FX outflows are not being matched by sufficient inflows,” the research lead said.

“The recent, albeit minimal, appreciation of the Naira since January has largely been driven by CBN interventions rather than organic market forces.”

Yusuf also said the decline will fuel speculation in the FX market and create “anxiety about the current stability,” thereby triggering additional pressure on the exchange rates, which may lead to further depreciation in the currency.

“And then there is depreciation, and, of course, you know the implication of that for inflation in particular. And you know the implication of inflation for business performance and for the welfare of the people,” Yusuf said.

WHAT FG, CBN MUST DO TO RAISE FOREIGN RESERVES

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Abuede said achieving the 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production is crucial to increasing the foreign reserves.

He added that diversifying FX sources beyond crude oil will also contribute to the international reserves.

“To mitigate this challenge, Nigeria must ensure a steady influx of FX into the economy. Achieving the ambitious 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production is crucial,” he said.

“Additionally, diversifying FX sources beyond crude oil and implementing policies that attract foreign investment and boost remittance inflows will be essential in stabilising the currency and strengthening external reserves.”

On his part, Yusuf advised the CBN not to stop what it is currently doing in the FX market to ensure that Nigeria has a market that is liberal and has minimum encumbrances.

“You know, that allows for seamless flow of autonomous funds into the economy,” he said.

“So, the market-driven system has helped that. So, that should be sustained. Because if you look at inflows and outflows relationship over the last one year, we have seen a significant improvement in net flows, you know, into the economy, when you look at outflows of forex and inflows, you know, inflows have been much more than outflows over the last 10 months or so.

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“The second other thing has to happen on the fiscal side, and that is about oil production. You know, I am not sure we are still making up our oil output as of now. There are issues around the Niger Delta and this Rivers state crisis is also possibly contributing to it.”

The economist said ramping up production and continued support for all the initiatives around investment in gas could boost the foreign reserves

“Of course, there are also the non-oil exports, which have been increasing over time, but we haven’t gained such critical traction in that yet,” he said.

Yusuf added that the government should also continue to encourage Nigerians in the diaspora to continue to invest in Nigeria through financial instruments and more.

TheCable

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What is the Dollar to Naira Exchange rate at the black market also known as the parallel market (Aboki fx)?

See the black market Dollar to Naira exchange rate for 23rd January, below. You can swap your dollar for Naira at these rates.

How much is a dollar to naira today in the black market?

Dollar to naira exchange rate today black market (Aboki dollar rate):

The exchange rate for a dollar to naira at Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market) players buy a dollar for N1655 and sell at N1665 on Thursday 23rd January 2025, according to sources at Bureau De Change (BDC).

Please note that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not recognize the parallel market (black market), as it has directed individuals who want to engage in Forex to approach their respective banks.

Dollar to Naira Black Market Rate Today
Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) Black Market Exchange Rate Today

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Buying Rate N1655

Selling Rate N1665

Dollar to Naira CBN Rate Today

Dollar to Naira (USD to NGN) CBN Rate Today

Highest Rate N1558

Lowest Rate N1548

Please note that the rates you buy or sell forex may be different from what is captured in this article because prices vary.

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Meanwhile, Union Bank announced on Thursday the commencement of a daily withdrawal limit on point-of-sale (PoS) terminals.

Union Bank reached the decision following the directive by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on December 17, 2024, limiting the daily withdrawal limit on PoS to ₦100,000 per customer.

Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos, is proving to be a magnet for travelers every year during the festive period known as ‘Detty December’, with new data revealing how the city’s annual celebration contributed to the country’s economy, according to Forbes Africa.

Independent research by advisory firm MO Africa Company Limited shows that between November 19 and December 26 last year, Lagos’ Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA) handled around 550,000 inbound passengers. Nearly 90% of these arrivals were Nigerians living abroad, flying in primarily for leisure and tourism.

Kayode Omosebi, CEO of MO Africa Company Limited, says his team surveyed hotels, airports, short-let agents, and nightclubs to compile the data.

The top five countries of origin were the United States, Canada, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, with most visitors heading to Lagos, Edo, Delta, Ondo, and Ogun states in Nigeria. Lagos alone attracted an estimated 1.2 million tourists. Of those, 60% were domestic travelers, driven by insecurity in southeastern Nigeria.

The influx of visitors brought a surge in hotel bookings and short-let apartment rentals. December hotel revenue in Lagos hit N54 billion ($36 million) from 15,000 bookings.

Short-term apartment rentals contributed another N21 billion ($13 million), with nearly 6,000 bookings made at an average nightly rate of N120,000 ($74.7).

Lagos’ nightlife was a major winner, with the top 15 lounges and nightclubs generating N4.32 billion ($2.7 million). On average, clubs raked in N360 million ($224,000) per day, with some tables fetching as much as N1.2 million per night ($746.7).

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Beaches and resorts accounted for 70% of the N4.5 billion ($2.8 million) generated from recreational activities.

Lagos’ event centers hosted 1,175 bookings, earning a combined N1.2 billion ($804,000).

Luxury car rentals also saw a boom, with N1.5 billion ($937,500) spent on 750 bookings. Daily rates ranged from N200,000 ($124.4) to N2 million ($1,244) for high-end vehicles.

Omosebi notes that Lagos’ hospitality sector is increasingly reliant on cryptocurrency platforms.

“Eighty five percent of conversion to Naira and payments were done through this exchange platform. A number of bookings were done through agents rather than through booking platforms, which speaks to trust concerns and the power-play of agents in the industry,” Omosebi says to FORBES AFRICA.

He adds that ‘Detty December’ could bring in up to $2 billion in foreign exchange by 2026, provided the government addresses infrastructure, security, and supply chain challenges.

“The industry is evolving and we would start seeing niche focused hospitality and tourism experiences… There’s massive opportunity in bespoke event centers for concerts and shows,” Omosebi says.

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Forbes Africa

The exchange rate between the naira and dollar slid back to around N1,745/$1 on the parallel market a sharp reversal from the sub N1,600 levels recorded at the end of last week.

An earlier article by Nairametrics quoted the exchange rate at around N1,685/$1, however, quotes quickly depreciated as business activities resumed fully.

Checks by Nairametrics as of 10 am Wednesday, December 11 show several rates above the N1,700/$1 mark suggesting that the gains seen last week may have been a “dead cat bounce” a market terminology for temporary gains.

Some P2P exchanges quoted N1,715/$1 while some IMTOs checked by Nairametrics quoted N1,745. Stock trading apps like Bamboo and Trove are quoted for N1,730/$1 and N1,736/$1 respectively.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate between the naira and dollar in the official market closed at around N1,525/$1 on Tuesday the strongest close since the EFEM was introduced.

Thus, the disparity between the official and black market rate has now widened to about N200 creating fear of a disconnect between the central bank-managed official market and the parallel market where most retail trades occur.

Meanwhile, as of the close of trading on December 11, 2024, the exchange rate in the official market weakened marginally to N1,545/$1 from N1,525 a day earlier. However, parallel market rates continued to trade for between N1730-N1740/$1.

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What you should know
Some BDC operators who spoke to Nairametrics suggest the weakening is likely the handiwork of speculators who are holding strong despite the introduction of a more robust trading platform by the CBN.

President of the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadebe, had warned that forex speculators will resist the rapid appreciation of the naira to cover their losses.

Gwadebe had urged the CBN to keep the momentum, discourage the illegal act of speculation and currency substitution as well as engage the BDC operators where volatility is pervasive.

The comments by Gwadebe followed the significant strengthening of the naira at both the official and parallel markets after days of appreciation since the apex bank introduced the EFEMS platform.

Nigerian economists are optimistic that the Naira’s appreciation against the dollar, if sustained, may lead to a drastic reduction in the prices of imported goods, by extension the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88 percent in October, 2024.

The Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, a don at Lead City University in Ibadan, disclosed this in separate interviews with DAILY POST on Monday.

Idakolo and Oyedokun spoke as the Naira settled at N1,538.50 per dollar on Monday, December 9, 2024, from N1,740 exchanged on November 9, the same year.

On a month-on-month basis, the Naira gained N201.5 and N110 at official and black markets when compared to the N1,740 exchange rate on November 9, 2024.

This is the case despite the Naira depreciating slightly by N3.5 and N30 against the dollar to begin the week on Monday at both FX markets.

This followed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recent launch of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) to eliminate distortion and bring transparency to the FX market.

Meanwhile, this is not the first time the Naira has appreciated upon CBN’s policy interventions.

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However, the Naira gain has always been short-lived and temporary.

DAILY POST reports that the development had impacted the FX rate used for import duties and cargo clearance, which was at N1645 per dollar Tuesday last week.

Reacting, Idakolo noted that with proper monitoring by CBN, the EFEMS platform is a game changer to the country’s FX market.

According to him, EFEMS had created fear in the parallel market ecosystem, which had reduced unnecessary speculations negatively impacting the strength of the Naira.

He noted that with Naira appreciation, the exchange rate for import duties is bound to reduce, which will in turn impact the prices of imported goods.

“The newly introduced EFEMS platform by CBN for centralised bidding for forex is a game changer because of its transparency and the convergence of all previous bidding options into one platform.

“There is no room for manipulations so far, and all the quotes are shown on the platform for both bidders and sellers.

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“This has created fear even in the unofficial forex market (black market) and reduced unnecessary speculations, which has negatively impacted the strength of the Naira.

“The CBN must continue to monitor the market and fulfil its regulatory obligations to all stakeholders.

“The BDCs must align to CBN’s reporting standards, and the banks must not fail to inflict heavy sanctions on erring players.

“The recent drop in the exchange rate for import duties is a step in the right direction, as clearing costs are bound to reduce, which will in turn impact the prices of imported goods.

“Clearing charges is a major component in costing imported goods, and with reduced charges, the prices will also be adjusted accordingly,” he told DAILY POST.

On his part, Oyedokun attributed the recent appreciation to CBN interventions, increased FX inflows, and reduced demand for dollars.

Like Idakolo, Oyedokun said that the strengthening of the Naira against the dollar could indirectly affect the prices of imported goods in Nigeria.

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“While the recent drop in the import duties exchange rate may not directly impact the Naira’s exchange rate, it could indirectly affect the prices of imported goods in Nigeria.

“If importers can procure goods at a lower exchange rate, they may pass on these savings to consumers, leading to lower prices for imported goods,” he stated.

He, however, noted that several factors could mitigate this impact of the exchange rate drop on the prices of imported goods.

“Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing global supply chain issues may offset any benefits from the lower exchange rate.

“Domestic Economic Conditions: Domestic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and government policies can also influence the prices of imported goods.

“Importer Behaviour: Importers may not necessarily pass on the savings to consumers, opting to increase their profit margins instead”, he further told DAILY POST.

According to the Oyedokun, to sustain the Naira appreciation, the CBN needs to continue its efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability, attract foreign investment, and address structural issues.

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He added that, “to sustain the Naira’s appreciation, the CBN needs to continue its efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability, attract foreign investment, and promote exports.

“Additionally, addressing structural issues such as corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure will be crucial.”

“It is important to note that the exchange rate is influenced by various factors, and the Naira’s appreciation may be temporary.

“Continuous monitoring and strategic interventions by the CBN will be necessary to ensure the sustainability of the Naira’s strength,” he stated.

DailyPost

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