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IMF raises alarm over rising inflation
The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has raised alarm over the negative effects of high inflation on consumption of goods and services in the country, even as it downgraded its economic growth forecast for Nigeria to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent.
However, the Fund also projected that the recent reforms by the Federal Government, namely, fuel subsidy removal and elimination of multiple exchange rates will lead to a stronger and more inclusive economic growth in the country, while calling for more interest rate hike to tame inflation.
The latest forecasts were contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, October 2023 released on the sidelines of the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.
The new forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth is 0.3 percentage point lower than the 3.2 per cent projected by the IMF in July. It is also 0.85 percentage points lower than the 3.75 per cent economic growth rate projected by the Federal Government in the 2023 budget.
Similarly, the IMF has reduced its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 3.3 per cent in 2023, down from the 3.3 per cent forecast made in July. But the IMF retained its growth forecast for the global economy at 3.0 percent.
“The global economy is limping along, not sprinting. According to our latest projections, world economic growth will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year, a 0.1 percentage point downgrade for 2024 from July. This remains well below the historical average”, the IMF said.
Forecast for SSA, Nigeria
In its forecast for SSA and Nigeria, the IMF said: “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.3 percent in 2023 before picking up to 4.0 percent in 2024, with 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point downward revisions for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and with growth remaining below the historical average of 4.8 percent. The projected decline reflects, in a number of cases, worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues.
In South Africa, growth is expected to decline from 1.9 percent in 2022 to 0.9 percent in 2023, with the decline reflecting power shortages, although with a 0.6 percentage point upward revision thanks to the intensity of power shortages in the second quarter of 2023 being lower than expected.
Head, World Economic Studies Division, IMF, Daniel Leigh stated this while speaking at a press briefing on the October WEO at the sidelines of the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.
He said: “For Nigeria in particular we have a growth forecast that goes from 3.3 per cent this year to 2.9 percent next year before going up to 3.1 in 2024 there is a downward revision for this year, partly this is because of the demonetization, the high inflation, the shocks to agriculture and hydrocarbon output. That is coming on top of all those external headwinds.
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“We also add that President Tinubu has moved quickly with important reforms including ending the fuel subsidies and unifying the official exchange rates. We welcome these initial bold reforms because we see them as paving the way towards stronger and inclusive growth.”
Calls for further interest rate hikes
Meanwhile, the IMF has called for more interest rate hikes in Nigeria and other countries to curb continuous rise in inflation.
Making the call in a special report, titled, “In pursuit of stronger growth and resilience”, the IMF noted that high inflation rate is the most immediate risk to economic growth in the African continent, the IMF called for further monetary tightening (interest rate hike) in Nigeria and other countries still experiencing high inflation rate.
In a bid to curb rising inflation rate, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN has raised its benchmark interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate, eight times to 18.75 per cent in July from 11.5 per cent in April last year.
But the inflation rate has continued to rise, reaching 25.8 per cent in August this year, the highest in 10 years.
Consequently, the IMF advised the CBN that further monetary tightening is appropriate in view of persistent rise in the inflation rate.
The IMF said: “In many cases, inflation is still high, public finances are still precarious, and confidence is still subdued. If they were to persist, these elevated imbalances would make the continent much more vulnerable to shocks.
“To ensure a more stable and sustained recovery, it is important that country authorities in Africa guard against any premature monetary policy easing and remain committed to their fiscal consolidation plans.
“Monetary policy efforts should remain tightly focused on price stability. This Is not only a priority to address the continent’s cost-of-living crisis but would also strengthen the credibility of central banks and overall macroeconomic resilience.
“In Africa, as elsewhere, the ability of the authorities to contain inflation amid global shocks owes much to improvements in policy frameworks over the last two decades.
“In many economies, advances in central bank independence, inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate flexibility, macro prudential regulation, and communication have all played critical roles. However, actions to build on this progress and improved credibility are essential, particularly in light of the test posed by recent inflationary shocks.”
Meanwhile some economy experts have appraised the IMF positions on Nigeria with some level of acceptance.
2.9% is a fair forecast – Olayinka
Speaking to Vanguard on the IMF economic growth forecast and rising inflation, Tajudeen Olayinka, analyst and CEO, Wyoming Capital and Partners, said: “I think 2.9% is a fair forecast of Nigeria’s GDP growth rate by IMF, given current challenges with people’s low purchasing power and supply side’s foreign exchange access constriction. It could take the economy the whole of 2024 to enjoy a semblance of stability, provided the government continues to run a comprehensive adjustment program. The previous regime of President Muhammadu Buhari left a deep hole in the economy.”
GDP may underperform forecast – Adonri
Also speaking, David Adonri, Analyst and Executive Vice Chairman, Highcap Securities Limited, said: “Even with rising inflation, it is unfortunate that Nigeria’s GDP may underperform the earlier forecast. The downgrade by the IMF from 3.3% to 2.9% may cast doubt on the efficacy of current reforms in the short term.
“In reality, exacerbation of inflation due to the reforms will certainly cause initial consumer resistance until the economy adjusts to the new price level. If the reforms are maintained and continue with iron determination, efficiency of markets will take the economy to an efficient level that will enhance growth, especially if fiscal enablers are provided to bridge supply gaps.
“The increased employment of the domestic factors, as long term benefits of the market based reforms, together with fiscal measures can then grow the economy to double digits. IMF review is sound but should not elicit much worry if reforms and fiscal enablers are brought to bear on the economy.”
We seem to agree with the position of IMF – Chiazor
Victor Chiazor, analyst and Head of Research and Investment at FSL Securities Limited, said: “The report by IMF reviewing Nigeria’s GDP growth rate down to 2.9% for 2023 from an initial 3.2% earlier projected for 2023 does not come as a surprise. The report hinged its review on rising inflation and drop in purchasing power of the consumer. Also its review took into consideration weaker oil output and gas production believing that revenues are expected to remain low. We seem to agree with the position of the IMF as we do not see any major rail winds that can drive the Nigerian economy higher for the remaining three months. The government still has a lot of fine tuning to do if it is to report increased output for the Nigerian economy for the year 2024 but as for the current year, we estimate the growth rate to be around three percent.”
The policies are not working- Jolapamo
Speaking on the development, Chairman, Board of Trustee, Nigerian Indigenous Shipping Association, NISA, Isaac Jolapamo, said that the government has done what it should by floating the Naira and removal of subsidy but these policies are working for reasons nobody can give.
Jolapamo said that it is in the time of crisis that some people make money and for that reason, these people will want the crisis to continue.
He said: “The policies are not working and I am sure they will come out with a more workable policy to help the economy grow.
“When you talk about the removal of subsidies and the floating of the Naira, these two policies should have worked to cushion the economic effects on Nigerians but they are not working because Nigeria is a special place.
“Like I said earlier, even when we do something legitimate, we always want to make it illegitimate because it is in chaos that some people thrive and it is very unfortunate and people enjoy doing it.”
The federal government’s recent announcement regarding the disbursement of N330 billion in cash transfers aimed at supporting poor and vulnerable Nigerians has been met with widespread reactions.
Many citizens have taken to social media platforms to voice their concerns, labeling the claim as potentially fraudulent and exaggerated. Click to continue reading.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, told reporters in Abuja on Wednesday that the funds were released through the National Social Safety-net Coordinating Office (NASSCO), with 8.5 million households already receiving at least one tranche of N25,000 from an $800 million World Bank facility. He said the transfers were tied to beneficiaries’ National Identification Numbers (NIN) and credited directly to their bank accounts or mobile wallets.
According to him, the programme targets 15 million households out of about 20 million captured on the National Social Register, representing nearly 75 million Nigerians. He added that the outstanding households would be reached before the end of the year.
But the announcement has been met with a storm of doubt online, with Nigerians openly questioning who the supposed beneficiaries are.
“Which household? Make a video of those you disbursed it to and the smile on their faces,” wrote Olawale, @Ola42563004.
Another user, Alabi I. Ayodeji, @damola_ade77, noted: “It’s hard to believe this though. 8.5 million households means about 34 million people affected using 4 people per household. Using the population of 220 million, that’s 1 in every 6 Nigerians impacted. We should know one or two people benefiting.”
Others expressed outright disbelief. “How was this achieved, who benefited from this? What is going on?” asked @mallamyisa.
“Post the account that received the money,” demanded @sulaimonofweb3.
“How many are we in this country that this money did not get to anyone close to me. You guys are fraud, absolute fraud. At least 1m should go around,” added @PEACEJDG.
For some, the payments were nothing more than a cover for corruption. “Never believe these people. This is a corrupt scheme,” @ChukwumaEj88455 said. Another, @greatvicman, argued: “No one can prove that these funds got to real people. No one. And certainly not Edun, whose office is being used to drain these funds away.”
The disbelief reflects deep frustration with Nigeria’s worsening economic crisis. “How and when? I have been unemployed for more than a year now after my NYSC, my bank accounts hold no money. How come I no receive? I no even know anybody wey receive,” lamented @MrChang9.
“It’s a lie. A normal APC lie in a weak country like what they want,” dismissed @woley23.
The controversy is not new. Similar cash transfer initiatives under former ministers of humanitarian affairs, Sadiya Farouk and Betta Edu, were repeatedly dogged by allegations of fraud and questions about credibility.
NASSCO’s National Coordinator, Funmi Olotu, however, defended the scheme, insisting that the staggered payments were designed to ensure that only those with verified NIN-linked accounts benefited. “Mr. President said no more traditional mode of payment of cash to people. He said we must pay directly to their bank accounts,” she explained.
Aliko Dangote, known as Africa’s wealthiest businessman, recently experienced a significant decline in his fortune following a drop in shares of his cement company on the Nigerian Exchange, as reported by Business Elites Africa.
The billionaire, who leads the Dangote Group, faced a staggering loss of approximately $163 million in a mere four days.
Cement slump drags down fortune
Dangote’s fortune had been on an upswing earlier this month, boosted by gains in Dangote Cement and a stronger naira. But the recent decline in the company’s stock has wiped out part of those profits.
Shares of Dangote Cement, where he owns over 87 percent, slipped more than three percent, falling from ₦528 on September 11 to ₦511.2 by Monday morning.
The drop pushed the company’s market value down to roughly $5.6 billion, directly affecting Dangote’s personal wealth.
This setback has reduced his year-to-date gains to $687 million, down from the $850 million growth recorded earlier in September.
Despite the dip, Dangote still remains one of the most influential figures on the African continent, with his cement business dominating markets across the region.
A refinery making global moves
Beyond cement, Dangote is also making bold moves in the energy sector. His $20 billion refinery near Lagos, which started operations last year, is gradually reshaping Nigeria’s role in global energy trade. Nigeria fuel prices
At the end of August, the plant made headlines by sending its first-ever shipment of gasoline to the United States.
Roughly 300,000 barrels of petrol left the refinery aboard the vessel Gemini Pearl, marking the first time Nigeria exported refined gasoline directly to America. For decades, the country had relied on exporting crude oil while importing refined fuel for local use.
The new facility, with a daily capacity of 650,000 barrels, has already exported cargoes to Asia and the Middle East.
Refinery outages in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have also opened opportunities for Dangote’s products to fill supply gaps in those markets, a sign of Nigeria’s growing competitiveness in refined petroleum exports.Nigeria fuel prices
Balancing losses and gains
While the slip in Dangote Cement has trimmed Dangote’s paper wealth, his diversification into energy and food industries continues to strengthen his long-term influence in Africa’s economy.
The billionaire may have lost $163 million on paper, but with his refinery steadily gaining ground in global markets, the picture of his financial empire remains one of resilience and expansion.
This sharp decrease has brought his total estimated wealth down to around $28.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The fluctuations in his company’s stock serve as a critical reminder of the volatility inherent in the financial markets.
As the 2027 election approaches, the political landscape is intensifying, with the spotlight firmly on President Bola Tinubu and the policies his administration has implemented.
One notable development is the recent appreciation of the Naira, which has gained traction in the foreign exchange market. Click link to continue reading.
On Monday, the Naira made headlines by appreciating to below N1,500 per dollar at the official foreign exchange market for the first time since February 2025.
According to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Naira improved to N1,497.5 per dollar, a notable increase from last week’s closing figure of N1,501.5. This remarkable shift indicates a substantial gain of N4.03 against the dollar, showcasing the currency’s strengthening position compared to its previous status.
In contrast, the Naira held steady at the black market, maintaining a rate of N1,537 per dollar, consistent with the figures from the previous weekend.
The last recorded instance of the Naira trading below N1,500 at the official market was back in February 2025, underscoring the significance of this recent performance.
This rising trend in the Naira is notable against the backdrop of Nigeria’s bolstered external reserves, which have surged to an impressive $41.70 billion as of September 12, 2025. The combination of these economic indicators casts a spotlight on the government’s financial strategies and their implications as the nation gears up for a pivotal electoral season.
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The Delta State Government says its recent investment mission to Brazil has unlocked fresh prospects for industrial expansion, agricultural development, renewable energy, and job creation in the state.
Briefing journalists in Asaba, the Commissioner for Works (Rural Roads) and Public Information, Mr. Charles Aniagwu, said Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s administration has already recorded significant gains by opening up all 25 local government areas with vital infrastructure, thereby creating access to mineral resources, industrial corridors, and potential free trade zones.
Aniagwu explained that the Brazil engagement was aimed at showcasing Delta’s investment opportunities while also drawing lessons from Brazil’s agricultural model, especially in ranching.
He stressed that the establishment of ranches in the state would not only boost food production and jobs but also strengthen security by curbing the use of forests as criminal hideouts.
“We are pursuing both security and job creation by targeting ranching and other agro-industrial investments,” Aniagwu said. “Our discussions in Brazil are progressing very well, and we are optimistic about the outcomes.”
He disclosed that the state also held talks with renewable energy firms and other players in the power sector, building on earlier engagements with the Rural Electrification Agency in Abuja.
According to him, the goal is to light up the state, expand industries, and create employment opportunities that will improve living standards.
Aniagwu noted that the government’s focus on agriculture and industry was deliberate, given the rising number of graduates from tertiary institutions across the state.
“Our goal is to create a productive economy where our graduates and young women can secure meaningful jobs beyond the limited space in the civil service,” he added.
“This is how we can guarantee both social and fiscal security for our state while raising living standards.”
He reaffirmed that the Oborevwori administration remains committed to the MORE Agenda, with particular emphasis on infrastructure expansion, energy generation, agriculture, and industrial growth.
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish a collaborative framework aimed at promoting, developing, and improving gas infrastructure in Nigeria, according to ChannelsTV.
It was signed on the sidelines of the just-ended fourth Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF2025) by Helen Brume, Director and Global Head – Project and Asset-Based Finance on behalf of Afreximbank, and Oluwole Adama, Executive Director on behalf of MDGIF.
The MoU emphasises private sector-led delivery models and aligns with both institutions’ mandates and strategic priorities.
Under the terms of the MoU, Afreximbank and MDGIF will work together with the overarching intention of mobilising up to $500 million over a four-year period to support midstream and downstream gas infrastructure projects. The investment is structured as a blend of senior debt and equity contributions, considered under both entities’ independent mandates, with a focus on accelerating the modernisation and expansion of Nigeria’s gas sector.
Project Highlights:
Targeted Gas Infrastructure Investment: Joint identification and prioritisation of eligible projects, with annual pipeline targets to ensure investment goals are met.
Senior Debt Financing: Afreximbank will consider providing direct financing and credit risk guarantees to support project finance transactions, working alongside local financial institutions.
Project Preparatory Support: Establishment of a dedicated support, either through funding or a support framework, for feasibility studies, legal structuring, environmental assessments, and other preparatory activities for bankable gas projects.
Equity Financing: MDGIF will consider equity contributions to complement Afreximbank’s senior debt, enabling full capital structuring for eligible projects.
Promotion and Advocacy: MDGIF will leverage Afreximbank’s platforms, including the Intra-African Trade Fair, to promote its initiatives and engage stakeholders.
Capacity Building: Development of a structured programme to enhance MDGIF’s institutional capabilities in project structuring, risk management, and innovative financing.
With respect to the collaboration between both parties, Mrs Kanayo Awani, Executive Vice President – Intra-African Trade and Export Development at Afreximbank, noted that:
“This MoU marks a significant milestone in our shared commitment to accelerating Africa’s economic transformation. By combining Afreximbank’s deep expertise in trade and project finance with MDGIF’s national investment reach, we are poised to unlock new opportunities for inclusive growth and sustainable development across Nigeria and, potentially, across the West Africa sub-region.”
She added: “We stand ready to work with the MDGIF in advancing the development of gas infrastructure projects in Nigeria, which will add value to the country’s natural resources. This intervention is also important as it aligns with Afreximbank’s Industrialisation and Export Development Agenda.”
Senator Oluremi Tinubu, the First Lady of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, has called for unwavering support for the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) to accelerate growth in the nation’s power sector.
The appeal came during a courtesy visit by the managing director and chief executive officer of NDPHC, Engr. Jennifer Adighije, to the First Lady over the weekend in Abuja.
Speaking passionately about the critical role of NDPHC, Senator Tinubu said, “It is essential that all stakeholders rally behind NDPHC’s leadership to ensure the company fulfills its mandate of advancing Nigeria’s power infrastructure. I urge the entire Management and staff of NDPHC to continue supporting Engr. Adighije’s vision with dedication and teamwork.”
The First Lady also commended Adighije’s commitment and leadership qualities. “Your diligence, passion, and deep sense of responsibility stand as a shining example of leadership in Nigeria’s power sector,” she stated. “Young women like you, who demonstrate rare leadership virtues, inspire a new generation of leaders and bring hope to our nation’s development.”
Senator Tinubu expressed joy and pride in seeing young Nigerians excel in positions of high responsibility. “I sincerely commend your efforts towards leading NDPHC with every sense of diligence and commitment,” she emphasised. “Your leadership is not only about managing the company but also about inspiring others to step up and contribute meaningfully.”
She further urged continuous teamwork within NDPHC to ensure the attainment of critical milestones in power generation and distribution. “For Nigeria to achieve steady power growth, the success of companies like NDPHC is vital. Let us all work together to support this leadership and push forward the sustainable energy agenda for our people,” she concluded.
Engr. Jennifer Adighije expressed gratitude for the warm reception and the commendations. She assured that NDPHC would remain resolute in transforming Nigeria’s power landscape through innovative projects and effective management.
The visit underscores a renewed focus on the power sector’s growth, with strong endorsements from key national figures encouraging collaboration and dedication toward a brighter energy future for Nigeria.
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