15 States Obi, Atiku Could Win If They Face Tinubu in 2027

With the 2027 general election still some distance away, Nigeria’s political landscape remains fluid.

However, voting behaviour from 2023, demographic shifts, opposition strength, and growing economic discontent suggest that President Bola Tinubu would not have a smooth ride everywhere if he seeks re-election.

Should Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi return to the ballot, there are key states where the opposition could realistically defeat Tinubu, especially if alliances are better managed and voter mobilisation improves.

1. Anambra
Peter Obi’s political base and Labour Party stronghold. Any APC victory here would be a major upset.

2. Imo
Despite APC’s presence, Obi’s 2023 performance showed strong grassroots support that could resurface.

3. Abia
Firmly aligned with Obi’s movement and unlikely to swing back to APC in a presidential race.

4. Enugu
A South-East state where Labour Party momentum overwhelmed traditional party structures in 2023.

5. Ebonyi
Though APC controls the state government, presidential voting trends still favour opposition candidates.

6. Delta
Atiku’s home state and one of PDP’s most reliable presidential vote banks.

7. Rivers
Historically anti-APC at the presidential level, with a large voter population capable of decisive impact.

8. Akwa Ibom
A PDP fortress where APC has struggled to make presidential breakthroughs.

9. Bayelsa
Strong PDP loyalty and resistance to APC dominance make it competitive for Atiku.

10. Cross River
Though APC governs the state, presidential elections here remain competitive and volatile.

11. Benue
A North-Central state where PDP retains emotional and political appeal due to longstanding grievances.

12. Plateau
Traditionally resistant to APC at the presidential level, with strong Christian and minority voter blocs.

13. Taraba
Another North-East state where PDP has consistently performed well in presidential polls.

14. Adamawa
Atiku’s home state remains a strong base, regardless of national party swings.

15. FCT (Abuja)
Symbolically crucial. Obi won convincingly in 2023, showing the power of urban, youth-driven voting.

What Gives Obi and Atiku the Edge Here
These states share several factors:

• Strong PDP or LP grassroots networks
• High youth and urban voter populations
• Historical resistance to APC at the presidential level
• Economic dissatisfaction that could fuel protest votes

For Peter Obi, expanding voter turnout beyond enthusiasm into structured mobilisation will be key.
For Atiku Abubakar, consolidating PDP unity and northern-central alliances could reopen winning paths.

No state is permanently owned by any party. Power blocs shift, incumbency can weaken, and voter anger can redraw political maps quickly.

If 2027 becomes a straight fight between Tinubu and a united or well-organised opposition, these 15 states represent the clearest opportunities for Obi or Atiku to turn the tables.