When President Bola Tinubu presented his historic N54.99trn 2025 budget proposal (which he tagged ‘Budget of Restoration’) before the National Assembly in February this year, he promised that discipline, focus and diligence would be the benchmarks for its implementation. Reflecting on the previous budget cycle, he said, “The past year tested our resolve. But through discipline and strategic reforms, we achieved what many deemed impossible. After the initial turbulent take-off, our people can see signs of progress and the promise of a better future. Our economy is turning the corner.”

Is the President’s assessment correct? Is the Nigerian economy turning the corner?

Even a casual observer of the Nigerian economy’s macro trajectory, at least in the past one year, can testify that, yes, it is witnessing the makings of a resurgence. While there is no denying that the initial challenges were brutal (especially on the micro-economic front), the country is, however, experiencing a series of economic miracles that are gradually transforming its financial landscape. This much was recently affirmed by two renowned Nigerian economists – in the persons of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, DG at the World Trade Organization (WTO); and the former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Chukwuma Soludo, who currently serves as Governor of Anambra State. In a recent address in Lagos, Soludo declared that the Tinubu administration had salvaged Nigeria’s public finances from the brink of collapse. “The audacious structural reforms,” he said, “have rescued the economy from the tipping point.” Under Tinubu, he added, the nation’s public finances are back on the path of solvency, with its macroeconomic fundamentals recovering positively.

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On her part, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala commended Tinubu for working to stabilize Nigeria’s economy, saying reforms under his administration were “moving in the right direction.” She stressed that this economic stability – if complemented by targeted growth policies and robust safety nets – would be critical to job creation and poverty reduction.

In view of the foregoing, what, precisely, has the President achieved? Analysts have identified 10 key areas in which the President’s policies have recorded the most significant positive impact:

• Increase in Crude Oil Production: For the first time in over a decade, oil production rebounded to the point where Nigeria was able to surpass its production quota as stipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for three consecutive months, producing an average of 1.71 million barrels per day – a development which has so far fueled a 20.46% growth in the oil sector.
• Reduced Interest Rates: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) slashed interest rates for the first time in five years, as a demonstration of confidence in the country’s macro-economic indices.
• Record Revenues: In a historic first, Nigeria achieved its revenue target for the entire year back in August. This is part of an overall growth trajectory that has seen the country’s Q2 2025 growth hit a high of 4.23% – outpacing the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Reflecting on this milestone, analysts note that the bulk of the revenue came from the non-oil sector, describing it as the result of the Tinubu-led economic reforms focused on stimulating said sector.
• Expansion of Transport Infrastructure: The nation’s transport infrastructure has expanded significantly – especially in the areas of rail and water transport, which grew by 40% and 20% respectively.
• Decreased Food Prices: Speaking about easing inflation, food prices reduced significantly, by over 20.12% in September 2025 – an over 1.76% decrease from 21.88% from only the last month. Overall, inflation cooled to 20.12%, its lowest level in in over three months – continuing a five-month uninterrupted spell.
• MTN Nigeria’s Record Valuation: MTN Nigeria Communications Plc hit a market capitalization of ₦10.1 trillion ($6.52 billion), becoming only the second-ever company listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (after Dangote Cement), to cross the ₦10 trillion mark. Analysts attributed the surge to renewed investor confidence, strong earnings, consistent dividend payouts, and increased data consumption. In line with the Tinubu administration’s calls for a more robust partnership with the private sector, MTN has also expanded its investments in network infrastructure and fintech services.
• Fuel Price Reduction: Dangote Refinery has not only lowered fuel prices to ₦841 per litre, but the company also plans the rollout of direct fuel distribution to 11 states with effect from Monday, September 15, 2025 – in a bid to enhance fuel distribution efficiency.
• Naira Appreciation: The 3% appreciation of the naira in September (to ₦1497 to $1) is a five-month high, and it is as a result of bold foreign exchange reforms which are attracting fresh capital inflows, especially from foreign investors.
• Increased Foreign Reserves: As of September 2025, Nigeria’s external reserves surged to $42.03 bn, marking the highest level since 2019, covering eight months of imports – a development analysts have described as a watershed moment for economic recovery and stakeholder confidence.
• Record Trade Surplus: Nigeria’s trade surplus rose 44.3% in Q2 2025 to ₦7.46 trillion (up from ₦5.17 trillion in Q1) to N7.46tr (about $4,74bn) – the largest in three years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), exports rose by 16.6% to ₦22.75 trillion, while imports increased to ₦15.28 trillion. As earlier mentioned, non-oil exports showed remarkable resilience – with agriculture rising by 15% and manufactured goods climbing by 173%, reflecting a gradual but steady progression in the administration’s diversification drive. Trade with the People’s Republic of China, in particular, surged to almost $16bn in the first seven months of 2025 – i.e. 35% year-on-year surge. As part of the government’s diversification drive, coal mining recovered dramatically from its -22% decline by Q1 to a +57.5% growth in Q2 – making that sector one of Nigeria’s fastest growing.

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In response to this growth, and what it promises for the overall economy, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX), for the first time in its history, rose to 130,147.57 All Share Index points. This surge is powered by renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, the easing of inflation, and overall industrial resilience, especially with big gains from cement giants like BUA Cement (+10%) and Dangote Cement (+9.99%).

In all, President Tinubu has flagged off a defining chapter in Nigeria’s history – a chapter anchored on courageous reforms and the relentless pursuit of progress in the face of socio-economic (and political) headwinds.  In naming him its “Man of the Year,” in 2024, ThisDay Newspaper noted: “Whether lampooned or lionized, President Tinubu cannot be accused of lacking courage to take tough decisions or the will to stay the course.”

As he continues on this course, one thing is clear: this Presidency is defined not by rhetoric, but by results. On all the relevant developmental indices, President Tinubu has confronted Nigeria’s challenges with clarity and conviction. But the change he seeks requires partnership as well as leadership; it requires the active participation of all Nigerians, whatever their background or walk of life. This is the time to rise beyond cynicism and second-guessing, to see the big picture, and to contribute to a cause greater than each one of us.

The road may be rough, but this house of Nigeria cannot – and will not – fall. The country’s economic momentum is undeniable. At long last, Nigeria’s developmental curve is once again on an upward trajectory, and the future shines with dazzling promise.

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• Keem Abdul, a public relations guru, publisher and writer, hails from Lagos. He can be reached via +2349O463O38I6 or Akeemabdul2O23@gmail.com

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