Politics
Video: How Jonathan may spoils Peter Obi’s presidential dream (Full voting breakdown)
The All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling political party in Nigeria, is currently confronting a significant national crisis as it endeavors to preserve its power in the approaching 2027 presidential election. Various factors present formidable challenges for Bola Tinubu’s administration as the political landscape grows increasingly intricate and precarious.
A key issue eliciting concern within the APC is the potential resurgence of former President Goodluck Jonathan. He appears to be gaining considerable support from numerous northern governors, who are advocating for his return to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as the preferred candidate for the presidential nomination. Indications from Jonathan suggest a willingness to respond to the appeals of influential political stakeholders in the northern region, thereby adding complexity to the already turbulent political climate.
Recently, Jonathan conducted a private, closed-door meeting with former Military Head of State General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, commonly referred to as IBB, at Babangida’s residence in Minna, Niger State. This meeting, which lasted over 45 minutes, was cloaked in secrecy, and although the public agenda ostensibly revolved around broader political issues, inside sources indicated that the discussions were specifically focused on strategic planning for the forthcoming 2027 general election.
Moreover, former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido has publicly endorsed Jonathan, asserting that he represents the PDP’s strongest candidate for the presidential election. Lamido has urged party leaders to actively facilitate Jonathan’s return, which underscores the growing anxiety within the APC, particularly among party members from the South-South and South-East regions.
Concurrently, ongoing power struggles within the coalition of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), primarily between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, have compounded the political situation. Current observations suggest that Obi, the former governor of Anambra State, is likely to face significant disadvantages in the 2027 presidential race, particularly with Jonathan’s potential candidacy from the South. Despite being a Southerner himself, Obi lacks the necessary political influence and widespread support to mount an effective independent campaign.
Many governors remain reluctant to align themselves with him, especially following his controversial declaration to seek only a four-year term, a statement perceived by some as disingenuous.
For the APC to secure a victory in the upcoming election, substantial national investments are imperative to restore public confidence and satisfaction among the Nigerian populace. Although many citizens acknowledge President Bola Tinubu’s diligent efforts to improve the situation, pervasive hunger and economic hardship remain critical issues. It is essential for local governors and grassroots organizations to actively engage with constituents to address these concerns prior to the election.
In terms of voting behavior dynamics, Jonathan’s candidacy could significantly impact election outcomes. Recent surveys indicate that over 56% of Southern voters are inclined to support Jonathan’s return to the Aso Rock presidential residence, primarily motivated by ongoing economic difficulties. This sentiment could result in approximately 70% of Southerners favoring Jonathan over Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Regionally, Tinubu is anticipated to receive a considerable portion of votes from the Southwest—estimated at around 70%—due to regional loyalty and other influential factors. However, Jonathan may also capture approximately 35% of the votes from the Southwest, while the ADC coalition, led by Atiku, could fragment the voting base in states such as Ogun, Osun, and Lagos, owing to Rauf Aregbesola’s behind-the-scenes efforts.
In the South-South region, if the PDP prioritizes grassroots campaigning, Jonathan is likely to garner substantial support. Additionally, some states in the South-East may exhibit similar trends. In the northern states, Atiku appears positioned to dominate the voter base, while the ADC affiliate leaders in these regions might collectively target around 25% of the vote.
Conversely, it seems that northern voters are unlikely to support Peter Obi, thereby rendering his candidacy increasingly tenuous for the 2027 election. Meanwhile, Atiku’s prospects depend significantly on the APC’s ability to maintain its strategic control; even a minor lapse could present him with the opportunity to reemerge as a formidable contender.