Business
N79 trillion debt: DMO advises president Tinubu to borrow less, increase Nigeria’s revenue
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has commended President Bola Tinubu for his economic focus on improved expenditure to reduce public debt levels, urging the new Nigerian leader to reduce borrowing and focus on increasing revenue.
DMO director-general Patience Oniha said this in an interview on Friday in Abuja.
Earlier in June, Tinubu’s aide Bayo Onanuga, said the Nigerian government, “which already commits 96 per cent of its revenue in servicing debt, is not in any position to continue selling subsidised fuel, most of which is smuggled across our borders for criminal and obscenely unpatriotic profit.”
He added, “Subsidy of fuel is no longer unsustainable as the FG is virtually broke. Apart from its N77 trillion debt, it also owes the NNPC Limited about N2.4 trillion for past subsidies.”
However, Ms Oniha cited the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of rates in the foreign exchange (FX) market as steps capable of boosting revenue and reducing new borrowing.
She called for increased investment in infrastructure as key to economic growth and development, adding that public-private partnership was a more viable option for infrastructure development.
The DMO recently released the Market Access Country-Debt Sustainability Analysis (MAC-DSA) for 2022. MAC-DSA is a template used to analyse debt levels to determine future debt sustainability.
The DMO stated that the analysis of the results of the 2022 MAC-DSA showed that the total public debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to increase to 37.1 per cent in 2023 relative to 23.4 per cent as of September 2022.
It said the proposed increment was due to the inclusion of the N8.80 trillion new borrowings for 2023 and the Ways and Means Advances at the Central Bank of Nigeria of over N23 trillion.
It also listed the estimated promissory notes issuance of N2.87 trillion in the debt stock under the baseline scenario.
“The country’s debt stock remains sustainable under these criteria. But the borrowing space has been reduced compared to Nigeria’s self-imposed debt limit of 40 per cent set in the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS), 2020-2023,” the debt office explained.
It added, “On the other hand, debt service-to-revenue ratio at 73.5 per cent in 2023 exceeds the recommended threshold of 50 per cent due to low revenue, which means that there is a need to significantly increase government revenue.”
“Under the alternative scenario, the total public debt-to-GDP ratio at 45.4 per cent in 2023 exceeds Nigeria’s self-imposed debt limit of 40 per cent,” it said.
DMO noted that the debt service-to-revenue also exceeded the recommended threshold of 50 per cent.
As part of its recommendations based on the MAC-DSA, the DMO called for moderation in new borrowings.
“The baseline analysis projects total public debt-to-GDP ratio at 37.1 per cent for 2023, indicating a borrowing space of 2.9 per cent (equivalent to about N14.66 trillion) compared to the self-imposed limit of 40 per cent,” DMO noted. “But it is recommended that this should not be used as a basis for higher level of borrowing as was the case in the 2023 budget. This is because the outcome of the shock scenario, which is more realistic in the circumstances, exceeded the self-imposed limit.”
The DMO also mentioned that the projected federal government’s debt service-to-revenue ratio of 73.5 per cent for 2023 is high and threatens debt sustainability.
According to the DMO, it means that the revenue profile cannot support higher levels of borrowing.
“Attaining a sustainable FGN debt service-to-revenue ratio would require an increase of FGN revenue from N10.49 trillion projected in 2023 budget to about N15.5 trillion,” it said.
Concerning expansion in fiscal deficit, the DMO said there was a need to strictly adhere to the provision of extant legislation on government borrowing.
It specifically called for adherence to the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 and Central Bank of Nigeria Act 2007 as it relates to Ways and Means Advances in order to moderate the growth rate of public debt.
The debt office also emphasised the need to prioritise revenue generation.
“There is an urgent need to pay more attention to revenue generation by implementing far-reaching revenue mobilisation initiatives and reforms including the Strategic Revenue Growth Initiatives and all its pillars,” DMO stated. “This is with a view to raising the country’s tax revenue to GDP ratio from about seven per cent (one of the lowest in the world) to that of its peers.”
The DMO stressed, “Government should encourage the private sector to fund infrastructural projects through the PPP schemes and take out capital projects in the budget that are being funded from borrowing to reduce the budget deficit and borrowing. Government can also reduce borrowing through privatisation and sale of government assets.”
(NAN)
Oil & Gas
Nigeria agrees to 1.5mbpd production quota set by OPEC
Heineken Lokpobiri, minister of state for petroleum resources (oil), says Nigeria will conform with the production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
On June 2, OPEC extended Nigeria’s production quota of 1.5 million barrels of crude per day (bpd) to 2025.
OPEC said Nigeria should maintain the production level till December 31, 2025.
The oil cartel increased Nigeria’s production level to 1.5 million bpd for 2024 at its ministerial meeting on November 30, 2023.
However, Nigeria has been producing below the quota.
Speaking after OPEC’s 56th joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) on October 2, the minister said Nigeria remains fully committed to the objectives of the body’s declaration of cooperation (DoC).
“Nigeria remains fully committed to the objectives of the DoC, and I can confidently confirm that our country is in conformity with the agreed production limits,” he said.
“While we continue to ramp up production in line with our national interests, we are doing so within the framework of OPEC’s guidelines, as we remain committed to balancing responsible production with our economic goals, and continue to meet our obligations under the DoC.”
OPEC RETAINS PRODUCTION OUTPUT POLICY
At the meeting, the oil cartel and its allies, known as OPEC+, retained its oil output policy, including a plan to start raising output in December.
According to a statement by OPEC, the group reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of July and August 2024 as well as current market conditions.
“During the meeting, the Republic of Iraq, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation confirmed that they had achieved full conformity and compensation according to the schedules submitted for September,” the oil cartel said.
OPEC said the three countries reiterated their resolve to maintain full conformity and compensation throughout the remaining period of the agreement.
Final estimates of September’s crude oil production levels, according to the oil cartel, would be based on authorised secondary sources that would be accessible by the second week of October.
The oil alliance added that it will provide production figures for the nations that are part of the declaration of cooperation (DoC).
“The committee noted the three separate technical workshops between representatives from the Republic of Iraq, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation and the secondary sources,” OPEC said.
“The meeting was aimed at discussing September production details and submitting their revised compensation plans that include the August overproduction as per the submitted plans to the OPEC Secretariat while also emphasising the need for some members to make further cuts to compensate for overproduction.
“The JMMC emphasised the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation. It will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments agreed upon at the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on 2 June 2024.
“The Committee will also continue to monitor the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non OPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024.”
Furthermore, according to OPEC, the committee would continuously assess market conditions.
OPEC said the next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled for December 1, 2024.
Business
Trading activities on Nigerian Exchange drop 0.33% after holiday
Resuming from the 1 October Independence Day holiday, trading activities on the Nigerian Exchange Ltd. (NGX) declined by 0.33 per cent on Wednesday, driven by sell-offs in MTN Nigeria and Tier-one banks.
Specifically, the NGX market capitalisation, which opened at N56.635 trillion, lost N187 billion or 0.33 per cent to close at N56.448 trillion.
The All-Share Index also shed 0.33 per cent or 327 points to close at 98,232.39, against 98,558.79 reported on Monday.
Consequently, the All-Share Index Year-To-Date return fell by 331.3 per cent.
Losses in MTN Nigeria, Guaranty Trust Holding Company(GTCO), FBN Holdings, Access Corporation, Dangote Sugar, and Transnational Corporation, among other declined equities, were the primary drivers of the market’s downturn.
Analysis of the market activities showed trade turnover settled lower, relative to the previous session, with the value of transactions down by 92.43 per cent.
A total of 425.76 million shares valued at N8.45 billion were exchanged by investors in 11,954 deals, in contrast to 1.86 billon shares valued at N111.58 billion were exchanged in 10,583 deals posted previously.
Market breadth also closed negative with 32 losers and 26 gainers.
On the losers’ chart, Ellah Lakes led by 9.93 per cent to close at N3.99 per share, while International Breweries led the gainers’ chart by 9.98 per cent to close at N4.41 per share.
Meanwhile, the United Bank for Africa (UBA) led the activity chart in volume and value with 108.02 million shares worth N3.01 billion.
Business
Black market dollar (USD) to naira (NGN) exchange rate today 3rd October 2024
What is the Dollar to Naira Exchange rate at the black market also known as the parallel market (Aboki fx)?
See the black market Dollar to Naira exchange rate for 2nd October, below. You can swap your dollar for Naira at these rates.
How much is a dollar to naira today in the black market?
Dollar to naira exchange rate today black market (Aboki dollar rate):
The exchange rate for a dollar to naira at Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market) players buy a dollar for N1640 and sell at N1680 on Wednesday 2nd October 2024, according to sources at Bureau De Change (BDC).
Please note that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not recognize the parallel market (black market), as it has directed individuals who want to engage in Forex to approach their respective banks.
Business
Nigeria’s crypto dealings hit $59 billion between July 2023 and June 2024
According to the Chainalysis Global Adoption Index, the West African nation ranked second overall, trading roughly $59 billion in cryptocurrency value between July 2023 and June 2024.
About 85% of transfers received in Nigeria are for less than $1 million, with smaller denomination retail and professional transactions being the main drivers of the country’s cryptocurrency activity.
Stablecoins have become an essential part of Sub-Saharan Africa’s crypto economy, making up about 43% of the region’s overall transaction volume, according to Chainalysis research. High inflation readings and the naira’s decline—which caused it to hit a record low in February 2024—are key factors driving the adoption of stablecoins in Nigeria.
Rob Downes, the Head of Digital Assets at ABSA Bank CIB, a significant African bank operating in 12 African nations, disclosed that stablecoin adoption in Africa has been significantly influenced by the widespread foreign exchange (FX) crisis. Chris Maurice, CEO and Co-Founder of Yellow Card, stated that businesses in about 70% of African nations face difficulties accessing the foreign exchange they require to run their operations. Stablecoins offer a welcome substitute in Nigeria, where the naira has suffered severe depreciation.
Maurice further highlighted, “The government and the banks don’t have money, and even if they did, they wouldn’t give it to you.”
“People are starting to see the real-world utility of cryptocurrency, especially in day-to-day transactions, which is a shift from the earlier view of crypto as just a get-rich-quick scheme,” said Moyo Sodipo, COO and Co-Founder of Busha, a cryptocurrency exchange with a presence in Nigeria.
Stablecoins are starting to take precedence over other cryptocurrencies for small to medium-sized transactions, indicating widespread adoption even though cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and altcoins still hold value and have received billions of dollars in investment. Stablecoins are becoming popular, and DeFi is experiencing significant growth in Nigeria.
Many Nigerians send money overseas using stablecoins because traditional remittance channels are expensive and inefficient. According to Sodipo, “Cross-border remittances are a major use case for stablecoins in Nigeria. It’s significantly quicker and less expensive.”
This aligns with the larger pattern that Sub-Saharan Africa is leading the world in DeFi adoption. Nigeria is at the forefront of this trend, having received over $30 billion in value from DeFi services in the past year.
Dollar-pegged stablecoins like Tether and USDC have grown in popularity, especially in countries battling unstable national currencies and restricted access to hard currency, allowing people and companies to store value, make international payments easier, and promote cross-border trade.
Important to this momentum has been the central bank’s decision to lift its ban on banks working with cryptocurrency companies, which was announced in December 2023. “A lot of opportunities for collaboration and more seamless transactions have arisen since the banking ban was lifted,” Sodipo said.
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Accelerated Regulation Incubation Program (ARIP) in June 2024. Under this program, virtual asset service providers (VASPs) must register and undergo an evaluation process to receive full approval.
The sector is optimistic about ARIP, according to Sodipo, because it represents a move away from uncertainty and a path toward clearer regulations.
Nairametric
Business
FG secures $200 million loan from Afreximbank for Nigeria’s creative economy
Hannatu Musawa, Minister of Arts, Culture and the Creative Economy, has secured a $200 million financing facility with the African Export-Import Bank to support the growth of the country’s creative industries.
Ms Musawa disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday.
The minister said this partnership with the African Export-Import Bank was a crucial component of the Destination 2030 vision and one of the ministry’s ambitious goals for the creative economy.
Ms Musawa urged investors, development partners, and global collaborators “to join us in creating two million jobs and contributing $100 billion to the national GDP.”
Afreximbank president Benedict Oramah, who also announced the partnership in New York, stated that the $200 million facility would support the ministry’s new initiatives for sustainable economic growth.
He emphasised the importance of investing in the creative industry and positioning Africa as a global cultural leader.
“The bank has deployed the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) programme to enhance Africa’s share of global trade in creatives and cultural products. Enhancing Africa’s share of global trade would be by offering tailored financial solutions, facilitating technical capacity building, and opening avenues for market access for creative entrepreneurs.
“It is for this reason that we are pleased to be working with the Federal Ministry of Arts, Culture and the Creative Economy to put in place a financing facility in an amount of $200 million. This facility will be used to support new laudable initiatives in support of the creative and cultural industries.
“We are impressed by the commitment and passion of the Ministry and its alignment with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) creatives’ strategy. We hope that we can work together to entrench this fully and use it to support the industry in a way that boosts pan-African cross-country partnerships,” Mr Oramah said.
The ‘Destination 2030’ initiative aims to establish Nigeria as a global soft power leader by 2030, with clear key performance indicators set by President Bola Tinubu.
As of 2024, the ministry reported a 36 per cent increase in Nigeria’s cultural influence alongside an 18 per cent increase in the Brand Perception Index.
Oil & Gas
Fuel scarcity looms as NNPCL portal closure delays petrol supply
Petroleum marketers have raised an alarm that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, portal used for the purchase of Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) has been shut down against dealers, making it impossible to apply for the commodity.
The spokesperson of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike disclosed this in a statement on Wednesday.
According to him, marketers have more than 2,000 pending tickets for the purchasing of 45,000 liters of petrol.
He hinted that the situation may lead to another round of fuel scarcity nationwide.
“I can’t confirm the price now because the portal is still shut down.
“We have more than 2,000 tickets for 45,000 liters (of petrol). That is 45,000 multiplied by 2,000, you can now know the number of million liters it will be. This is just an estimate, you know I don’t work with NNPCL and I don’t know what is on their system,” Ukadike stated.
He added that a 45,000-litre truckload of PMS is around N39.5 million, making N79 billion when multiplied by 2,000.
Reacting to the development, the spokesperson of NNPCL, Olufemi Soneye admitted that the state-owned firm has a significant backlog to address.
He said that the portal closure was intended to prevent the company from holding marketers’ funds for an extended period.
Soneye assured that the portal would soon be reopened; however, he failed to state the date when it would happen.
“We have a significant backlog to address. The closure is intended to prevent us from holding marketers’ funds for an extended period,” Soneye had explained.
“It will be reopened once the backlog has been sufficiently reduced. We are working to address it as soon as possible,” he stated.
The development comes as Nigerians struggle with high energy costs.
Recall that NNPCL in September 2024 announced a fresh price increase for petrol nationwide after lifting the product from Dangote Refinery.
Nigerians currently buy petrol between N950 and N1,100 per liter nationwide.